Thursday, September 24, 2009

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast 2010 - Prediction about Greater Vancouver House Prices, Home Pricing w/ 12% HST, Interest Rates, Olympics, Fundamentals

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast 2010 – A Prediction About House Prices, Home Values and Housing Sales Volume

What's in store for Vancouver Real Estate in 2010? Here's a forecast on Vancouver home prices and prediction on Vancouver property values.Being an enthusiast about this subject for over a decade, there are some thoughts about a 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast. With sales volume and prices increasing through 2009, many homebuyers are wondering if average selling prices and property values will continue to increase in the latter stages of 2009 into and through 2010. Here is a prediction about the 2010 Vancouver real estate resale market as well as presale condo developments in the area.

7 Major Factors Will Affect 2010 Vancouver Housing Prices

There are many factors that affect Vancouver housing prices, but in late 2009 and into 2010, there are several very unique circumstances that will influence sales volume of all housing types in addition to property values and sales prices throughout the region. It is often hard to predict 2010 Vancouver housing prices simply because a lot can change. Some important factors the affect 2010 Vancouver housing prices now may end up not influencing the resale or presale markets, while other new factors may creep up to affect homebuyers. Here are the seven factors that will likely affect the 2010 Vancouver Housing Prices in no particular order:

1. mortgage rates (financing)
2. BC Harmonized Sales Tax (12% HST on new property)
3. supply and demand in 2010 Vancouver presale real estate market
4. supply and demand in 2010 Vancouver resale real estate market
5. consumer confidence and emotions
6. Vancouver population growth and projections
7. Vancouver economic fundamentals in 2010 and beyond

A Quick Summary of Our 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Forecast Based on These Factors

A 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast based on the above factors will determine where the property market will likely head in the future. As part of our prediction for the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast, we have put together a quick summary explaining each of the 7 factors and if they will positively of negatively influence the Vancouver real estate forecast 2010. Firstly, mortgage rates have been at all time lows for over a year. The Bank of Canada lending rate has been at 0.25% and they have promised to keep it there until at least the third quarter of 2010 barring upward pressure from inflation. Therefore, after June 2010, it is likely that the BoC lending rate will increase, thereafter the banks will also increase their prime rates, increasing the mortgage variable rates across the board. The fixed rates, which are based on the US bond market, will also likely see a spike too. As inflation starts to creep in, more investors will head towards buying US bonds, and therefore, demand will increase, increasing the borrowing fixed mortgage rates in Canada. With both fixed and variable rates in Vancouver increasing in the future, this will have a negative impact on the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast, as cashflow and affordability will again become a bigger issue. A big effect on the 2010 Vancouver new real estate market including presales condos and pre-construction homes will be the BC Harmonized Sales Tax. A new 12% BC HST will be applied to any new construction property, which will have a huge influence on the presale 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast. With less demand for presales and pre-constuction Vancouver real estate, developers and builders of new property will feel the hit come 2010 and into 2011, as less Vancouver homebuyers and condo purchasers will pay the extra 12% hit on a new home. Demand for presale Vancouver real estate in 2010 will go down, putting upwards pressure on resales property. What this means is that many homebuyers will opt for resale listings. With more demand, the resale 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast is brighter, and will likely see a bigger price increase as demand grows for these non HST taxable homes. As the global economic crisis is becoming better managed and the end is in sight, consumer confidence in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast and predictions is gaining. As many Vancouver homebuyers purchase homes based on emotion, this boost in confidence will also boost the local Vancouver real estate forecast in 2010. As fall and winter 2008 was a brutal year for not only Vancouver real estate sales volume but also housing prices, 2009 will see a huge increase in both areas. As numbers are published in late 2009 and early 2010, we will likely see the above 100% increase sales volume and increase of 1 – 3% per month in Vancouver housing prices until next summer. This will have a positive impact on consumer confidence in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast and predictions. In addition, the Greater Vancouver population continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in Canada. This will continue and put pressure on the Vancouver property market as inventory has stalled during the past 2 years due to the global economic crisis. With many new condo projects delayed or cancelled, this has pushed back a lot of housing inventory, thereby reducing the Vancouver real estate inventory during this hot market time. Lastly, the Vancouver economic fundamentals remain strong. With new transportation routes completed, better accessibility and an influx in business and retail, the Vancouver real estate forecast 2010 is likely headed upwards. Notice that we didn’t even mention the 2010 Olympics, which we believe is a non-factor in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast.

Conclusion about 2010 Vancouver Home Prices

So a quick conclusion on where the Vancouver home prices are headed in late 2009 into 2010: sales volumes and home prices will see huge jumps compared to last year as 2008 was a bad year. Mortgage rates are likely headed upwards and even spiking by mid-2010. The addition of the 12% BC HST on new homes will adversely affect the presales and new Vancouver home market, causing presales 2010 Vancouver home prices to dip as demand drops. With less homebuyers in the market to purchase new homes, the resales 2010 Vancouver home prices will likely go up a lot, as more homebuyers look for completed homes. The worst of the economic crisis in Canada is over, and with job creation looming and stricter lending practises from the bank, consumer confidence in the Vancouver real estate market place will go up. Based on emotions felt from the headline news proclaiming a global recovery and above 100% gaines in sales volumes and staggering increase in housing prices, the 2010 Vancouver home prices will likely be buffered by homebuyers purchasing based on emotion. With the economic fundamentals stronger than ever and with population growth and migration into the city increasing, 2010 Vancouver home prices will go up as demand will grow. With new housing inventory stalled and increased demand, the re-balancing of the Vancouver real estate market (especially resales homes) will likely tip in the favour of homeowners by mid to late 2010.

The Other Intagibles Affecting The Vancouver House Prices 2010

There are a few other intangible factors that may or may not affect the 2010 Vancouver House Prices beginning with the 2010 Vancouver Whistler Winter Olympics. The hot market in 2009 started back in April and has continued through into October, but none of the price increases or staggering jump in sales volume had to do with the 2010 Olympics. On the contrary, the fundamentals behind the 2009 Vancouve house prices include 2 factors: record low mortgage rates and affordability which go hand in hand. These 2 factors will likely drive the 2010 Vancouver house prices upwards in the first half of the year. Therefore, the 2010 Olympics are a mute point. Most of the amateur investors who had flipped property or renovated homes and flipped them afterwards no longer are in the Vancouver real estate market. The Vancouver house prices 2010 will be much more stable the the boom years between 2005 – 2007. A second intangible factors that will affect 2010 Vancouver house prices are transportation nodes. With the completion of the Canada Line SkyTrain from Richmond to YVR to downtown Vancouver, this creates many new neighbourhoods in which we will see huge growth and demand in real estate. These areas will likely see the best increases in 2010 Vancouver house prices and demand will increase with limited new supply coming onto the market.

The Future of Vancouver Real Estate In a Nutshell

So our prediction for the next year is that the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2010 continues to be bright buoyed by low interest rates and the outlook of the dreaded HST on new homes. So the combination of the two factors will likely increase Vancouver property prices in 2010 (even if the interest rates remain low, as there are always forecastings saying a mortgage rate spike is in order in 2010 through 2010) and the HST which have negatively impact the new presale Vancouver housing market. Therefore, the presale Vancouver home prices will stabilize and possibly decrease as a result of the 12% HST added on to the purchase price, which will make resale Vancouver real estate more attractive, and therefore bumping and increasing the price of the resale Vancouver home prices 2010. With that in mind, overall, the Vancouver 2010 real estate forecast is good, as property values, home prices and housing prices should increase. Housing inventory for 2010 will remain steady as many projects will again start, but will not be completed until 2011 or beyond. The 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast will see Vancouver home prices increase through the first half of 2010, and then become more steady from the presale housing market value standpoint through the latter half of 2010. For the resale Vancouver home prices in 2010, they will increase throughout the year due to pent up demand as well as the forecast of increased interest rates.

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Summer 2009 Update: Vancouver Real Estate Market June Numbers, Electric Vehicle Plug-In for New Multi-Family Projects & Vancouver Cost of Living Drops

June 2009 Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market Update

It was a June to remember for the Vancouver real estat market, as sales and prices pushed upwards amidst a renewed optimism in the global economy recovery coupled with lowered asking prices and historically low interest rates. In the Greater Vancouver area, the price of a detached house in June 2009 was about 8% higher then in February 2009 ($649,000 benchmark price) and up 3% compared to this May 2009 (benchmark price of $680,000). For June 2009, the average benchmarck price for a detached Vancouver home was above $701,000, touching this mark for the first time since last year. With signs of a Canadian economic recovery and also an end to the global recession in site, the Greater Vancouver housing prices have steadily increased since February 2009. In addition to the detached homes, the attached Vancouver homes also saw a benchmark price gain up to $441k while condos/apartments also saw a 2% rise to an average of $357k. June 2009 signified the second busiest month for number of Vancouver real estate sales in the Lower Mainland, only to be bettered by June 2005. At one point, the average Vancouver home prices dropped 15% from the height of the market in 2008 to the lowest point earlier in 2009. Right now, Vancouver housing prices are still down 8% compared to June 2008, but with a renewed optimism and more homebuyers looking to purchase at low interest rates, the trends towards higher benchmark sales prices and number of sales will likely continue through the year. In most markets, homebuyers are also seeing a shrinking number of home listings compared to last year, which is a sign of a more balanced Greater Vancouver real estate market.

According to the North Shore News, although prices are still down, values are recovering and the number of Greater Vancouver real estate sales in June 2009 were record breaking and at all time highs! Whether it is pent up demand from homebuyers who opted to stay away from purchasing last year or lower prices, North Shore real estate sales continue to increase as well through 2009, signifying a huge rebound in both property values as well as real estate sales. While the North Shore property prices are still lower than the all-time peak highs in 2007 and 2008, both West Van and North Vancouver property sales have accelerated faster then most analysts and experts had predicted. In June 2009, the North Shore (West Vancouver, District and City of North Vancouver) had four hundred and seventy two sales, as released by the Greater Vancouver real estate board on July 3, 2009. This increase in sales represents the 5th consecutive month in which the number of North Shore real estate sales has increased, which followed a 7 month period where property values plummeted. The worst month came in December 2008, when only 65 homes were sold on the North Shore. The benchmark price for a detached home in west Vancouver was still down at around $1.25 million, which represents a 16.7% decrease in value compared to last May 2008. In the North Vancouver real estate market, the values are 12% lower at a benchmark price of $812k. The rebound in North Shore property sales and that of the entire Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate markets is due in part to these drop in asking/listing prices which increases affordability for all lifestyles and age groups in addition to the lowest interest mortgage rates in the history of the country. With many people not purchasing property in 2008, these homebuyers are showing up in flocks to buy devalued Vancouver property now with interest rates as low as they are. The entire Greater Vancouver real estate market showed a 75.6% increase in number of sales over last June 2008 with 4,259 total homes changing hands, which represents the second largest sales month of all time, just behind the 4,333 sales in June 2005.

City of Vancouver Pushes for Car Plug-In Requirements for New Real Estate Developments

The City of Vancouver is pushing for a new requirement in building processes, plug-ins for electric vehicles. This is the first step in any major municipality to have this requirement for Vancouver real estate construction. Hping to build and they will come approach, any new Vancouver development, whether it be condos, townhomes or single family homes will require plug-in stations in garages or parking stalls for electric vehicles according to 24 Hours Vancouver. Vancouver developers will be required by building law to include a specified number of electric plug-in stalls for new developments depending on the size of the project for multi-family housing. As one of the defining factors of electric vehicles making it into the common marketplace, the City of Vancouver hopes that this push in new Vancouver real estate requirements will help facilitate more electric vehicle sales and thereby creating a healthier environment within our city. Currently, the City of Vancouver is asking for at least ten per cent of all parking stalls/garages to have plug-in capabilities for electric vehicles. According to the Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association, they think this is a good move by the City but says that it should become a requirement that all parking stalls for new multi-family Vancouver housing projects should have these electric plug-ins available, which will be in line with future growth, tenants and homebuyers. However, there are many local Vancouver developers who are opposed to such changes in building requirements, citing that electric vehicles are not mainstream yet. The estimated increase in building costs for the 10% of all parking stalls to have electric vehicle plug ins is a mere 0.5 per cent.

Vancouver Cost of Living Falls

Contrary to popular believe, Vancouver’s cost of living has fallen down the ranks for world class cities according to the latest 2009 Worldwide Cost of Living survey. According to Metro News Vancouver, the City of Vancouver is now 93rd most expensive city to live in, which is surprisingly tied with Panama City. Last year in 2008 Worldwide Cost of Living survey, the City of Vancouver ranked 64th (which represents a drop in 23 places for this year). Some of the major reasons for the drop is the strength of the Canadian Dollar globally, which reduces the cost of living here in Vancouver. The priciest Canadian City was Toronto at 84th, Calgary at 89th followed by Vancouver. The 2009 Worldwide Cost of Living survey covered one hundred and forty three cities in six continents and the top 2 priciest cities were in Japan (Tokyo and Osaka).

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Friday, February 20, 2009

Is It The Right Time To Buy Vancouver Real Estate? Low Interest Rates and Falling Housing Prices Make It A Good Time to Consider Investing in a Home

Vancouver Real Estate Update April 2009 – New Stock of Vancouver Condo Units Dwindling

In a recent study and analysis of Vancouver real estate inventory, it came as a shock for many homebuyers and real estate investors/analysts that the housing stock is dwindling in the City of Vancouver as of March and April 2009. According to 24 Hours Vancouver newspaper, Dharma: “Prices for new Vancouver housing real estate stock have hit the floor, according to the man who launched a series of bulk real estate sales across the region. According to Cameron McNeill, president of MAC Marketing Solutions, he said that his latest condominium Vancouver promotion, which started on March 20th, 2009 and represents over $110 milion in Vancouver home sales at four real estate developments, could be the last of its kind as vacant properties in the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley built before the economic downturn are filling with residents. “New [Vancouver real estate] developments cannot come to market at these values,” McNeill said. “They don’t make economic sense or every few of them do.” A further drop in Vancouver new home sales prices may not be in the cards according to MAC Marketing solutions as well. “I think that we’re going to see that we’ve found the floor and we’re going to be staying close to these prices –for six months to at most a year – and then we’re going to see a slow appreciation.” But Tsur Somerville, associate professor at UBC’s Sauder School of Business, said projecting an economic recovery in the Vancouver real estate market is no easy task. “People in the business of selling talk about the economy stabilizing and starting to come around and then there are others who aren’t so optimistic,” Somerville added. “There’s a consensus that prices [for Vancouver real estate housing] have further to fall. What there’s not as much as consensus on is when things start turning around.”

Vancouver Real Estate Market Downturn or Property Market Opportunity?

We are in a Greater Vancouver/Lower Mainland housing market that has definitely changed from the furious pace of the last few years. While the media slowly tires of sensationalized stories of a crash, industry experts watch as Vancouver real estate opportunities emerge. And I ask, is this a market downturn or a market opportunity? A special advertisement provided by Polygon real estate developers in Vancouver. Economic Slowdown: After six years of exceptional growth there is no doubt British Columbia now faces a more difficult challenge. With the financial crisis and global economic slowdown new challenges have emerged in the Greater Vancouver real estate market and will become the stories of 2009. Home Prices Within Reach: The bad news is not unfamiliar, home prices in Greater Vancouver have fallen. But is this really bad news? For those renters looking to get into a new home, home prices in the Lower Mainland are within reach for the first time in years. For those that currently own a Vancouver home, the news isn’t all that bad either. Sure, the price of your home may have correted, but so too has the dream home you aspire to own. Do the math; a 10% reduction on fthe cost of a more expensive home represents a greater savings to you than a 10% reduction in your own lower priced Vancouver home. In a booming real estate market the reverse is true. Today’s lower prices in the Greater Vancouver real estate market clearly presents an opportunity to purchase for many. Interest Rates Lowest in Years: With recent drops in lending rates from the Bank of Canada, a prospective homeowner now stands the chance of getting a home financed at some of the lowest mortgage rates in fifty years. For many, the difference between a mortgage payment on an average priced home six months ago and one made today can represent savings of hundreds of dollars a month or thousands a year, clearly an opportunity not to be missed in today’s Lower Mainland real estate market! Strong Political Leadership: Our country is now facing some challenging political times; however, thanks to Premier Gordon Campbell, and the efforts of our B.C. Liberal Government, British Columbia offers some of the most competitive personal and business tax rates in Canada, and is leading the country in job creation, economic strength, business confidence and fiscal responsibility. Consumer Confidence: Let’s be honest, with such great real estate Vancouver prices, low interest rates, plenty of choice and all the buying power a prospective homebuyer could ask for, the only thing keeping people from acting is fear. I suggest that if you are planning to stay in your home for five years or more, there has never been a better time to purchase a new Vancouver home. Think about it, smart homebuyers buy in a buyer’s market. Even this past fall, we saw many smart people taking advantage of today’s opportunities in the Lower Mainland real estate market as we closed over 300 sales int eh last three months of the year. Real estate markets change but two things remain constant: the desire to live in well designed homes, and Polygon’s commitment to building them well. After building more than 18,000 homes in Greater Vancouver real estate market, over the last 28 years, Polygon continues to be confident in the future of British Columbia. If you are thinking about upsizing, downsizing, or getting into your first home, I encourage you to take advantage of today’s Vancouver home buying opportunities. The advice I share with friends and family is to buy the best home you can afford in the best neighbourhood for your search area in the Lower Mainland. Visit a Polygon community in your area this weekend and we’ll help you find the new home that’s right for you. In the long run, you will realize the value to yourself and your family of owning a home int eh great Province of British Columbia. Neil, Present and Chief Executive Officer for Polygon.

Polygon Builders Report Steady Sales in South Surrey Real Estate Market

According to a Vancouver Sun special advertorial by Polygon, the home buyer’s response to amenities and value make Polygon’s Kaleden and Cathedral Grove at Morgan Heights in the new South Surrey a success this year. “There’s a reason that the quiet treed corridor along South Surrey’s 158th Street has become a such a popular place. It could be the allure of the stands of mature evergreens set against a backdrop of the North Shore Mountains. It could be it’s proximity to the lively new shopping district of Morgan Crossing just a short walk away. But most likely, it’s the combination of these factors and the quality, design and value of Polygon’s latest new home communities Kaleden and Cathedral Grove in Morgan Heights, South Surrey real estate market. AS the saying goes, few factors have the ability to secure a home sale quite like the age-old adage ‘location, location, location.” And Kaleden and Cathedral Grove by Polygon in Morgan Heights community stands as a testament to this, offering Vancouver homeowners a convenient doorstep to one of the liveliest new neighbourhoods the Lower Mainland reale state has to offer at Morgan Heights. Walking distance to a brand new and expansive selection of urban village style boutique shopping and dining, a short drive to the sandy beaches and shorelines trails of White Rock real estate or the lush greens of Morgan Creek Golf Course, Polygon’s two new communities at the South Surrey Kaleden homes and Cathedral Grove houses sit among the best this area has to offer. But if fun in the sun in the sunniest place in the Lower Mainland real estate market proves not to be enough then Steve Nash’s 38,000 square foot fitness centre (coming soon to Morgan Heights South Surrey) or the arena, pools, and other amenities of the local South Surrey Athletic Park are sure to fill your day for even the most active of families. And with easy access to the highway a weekend trip to Seattle or the outlet malls across the border are conveniently close. For young families with children, or newlyweds with plans for kids and ht eprospect of school on the not too distnad horizon, the options are equally promising at the Morgan Heights community of South Surrey real estate market. The top ranked Southpointe Academy is at the end of the street for those interested in private school; or, with the city’s approval of a new public elementary school slated for the land across the street, a quick trip home ofr lunch could be in the cards for the kids of Morgan Heights Kaleden and South Surrey Cathedral Grove home communities in the very near future. “A strong selling point for our homebuyers is certainly our central location,” says Cathedral Grove Sales Manager Laura. “But for many it is what they find on their arrival that sets us apart from the rest,” she says pointing down a winding path through stands of mature evergreens that tower over a central amenity clubhouse here at the Morgan Heights South Surrey Cathedral Grove and Kaleden home communities. “Our favourite part is the trees,” says Cathedral Grove homeowners. “During our first visit we noteiced the clubhouse. It was beautiful, sow e walked over to have a look. The pool was fabulous, the barbecue was on, and the ambience was great!”

The Evergreen Club at Morgan Heights and More Info

The Evergreen Club South Surrey, a breathtaking 7,500 square foot country club inspired clubhouse, features a beautiful outdoor pool and spa, state of the art media room, fireside lounge, and more, to which residents at both Polygon South Surrey Morgan Heights communities receive exclusive access. In addition, with two guest suites that homeowners can reserve for visiting house guests, and a resident manager who ensures everything runs smoothly, owning a home at Cathedral Grove Polygon homes or Kaleden South Surrey truly is a resort inspired experience. With many new homeonwers having already moved in, the community is quickly coming to life. Residents of both Polygon communities in the South Surrey community were recently treated to one of their first official neighbourhood events: a Wine Tasting party hosted in the inviting fireside lounge of the Evergreen Club by local wine merchant Liberty. The evening marked the first of many more events to come at the Evergreen Club of Morgan Heights as both communities continue to grow and welcome the new neighbours who will make their home at Kaleden or Cathedral Grove by Polygon Homes. On the home front, it doesn’t take long to fiture out the appeal of owning a Polygon home. Whether it’s a contemporary two or three bedroom floor plan at Kaleden Morgan Heights or a spacious four bedroom at Cathedral Grove South Surrey real estate, the quality, design and value Polygon delivers in every home is evident. Distinguished for its remarkable affordability while including designer finshings, such as integrated cabinet paneled appliances, granite countertops, and warm wood style flooring, it is not surprising Kaleden Morgan Heights South Surrey homes has been reconized as the fastest selling townhome community in all of the South Surrey real estate market. For htose families looking for some additional space and finer details, Cathedral Grove at Morgan Heights offers home up to over 2100 square feet, gourmet kitchens well equipped with Bosch appliances and granite countertops, and the conveniences of two car garages. In today’s South Surrey real estate market, likely the most important and final consideration for prospective hombuyers is the price. “Kaleden Homes is our first home purchase a is by far the best value we could find,” homeowners at Kalden by Polygon Homes. At just $314,900 for a new home at Kaleden South Surrey and only $419,900 for a four bedroom home at Cathedral Grove in Morgan Heights neighbourhood, these two new communities offer some of the best value in the entire Lower Mainland property market. “We are delighted with the steady sales at both communities having sold 105 homes here in the last seven months. WE are now down to eight homes in our first phase at Cathedral Grove… and having quickly sold out of our first phase at Kaleden, we will be releasing more homes this weekend.” Offering a vibrant lifestyle in a convenient, yet exclusive, setting, Kaleden and Cathedral Grove homes in Morgan Heights South Surrey shine as two of the best in the hot new neighbourhood. The Polygon family of companies, British Columbia owned and operated since 1980, has built more than 18,000 homes throughout the Lower Mainland, and earned the trust of thousands of families. Polygon’s award winning Customer Service team provides after sales service, and all homes are protected by comprehensive 2/5/10 warranties by the Traveler’s Gaurantee Insurance Company. The Morgan Heights Kaleden and Cathedral Grove South Surrey sales centre and display homes, as well as the impressive Evergreen Club, are open daily from noon to 5pm except Friday, and are located at 27th Avenue and 158th Street in South Surrey. For more information about Kaleden, please call 604.541.4246 or Cathedral Grove, please call 604.541.7383 or visit

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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Doom and Gloom or Smooth Sailing? What is the 2009 Vancouver Real Estate Forecast and Housing Outlook in the Lower Mainland now and beyond 2010?

2009 Vancouver Housing Forecast and Lower Mainland Property Outlook for 2010 Olympic Year

There is much talk about the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2009 and further ahead into the Winter Olymipic 2010 Vancouver property market forecast, but really, there is no one in this world who can predict what will happen to the Lower Mainland housing market. There are predictions and outlooks, forecasts and opinions, but these are not based on facts or reality, just yet. This is an article that talks about the future of the Vancouver real estate market in terms of forecasting the 2009 Vancouver housing market as well as the property outlook further into 2010 before and beyond the Winter Olympics. Based on fundamental issues such as the Vancouver economy, in and out migration, housing affordability, GDP growth and other factors such as aging population and transient work force, there are many things to be happy about in terms of the Vancouver housing forecast for 2009 and beyond, but there are also many traps and assumptions being made that should not be by the typical Lower Mainland home buyer and investor. A wide range of chief economists, bank leaders and Greater Vancouver real estate experts have taken claim to what they think is the true outlook for the Vancouver property outlook 2009 as well as the Vancouve real estate forecast for 2010. Published, blogged and submitted to newspapers and magazines, these experts’ opinions vary widely in their perception of what is going on with the current housing market and the 2009 Vancouver housing real estate forecast that is already upon us. Let’s take a look.

The Vancouver Real Estate Forecast for 2009

The Greater Vancouver property market has faced an unprecended growth period during the past decade, lead by huge property gains in West Vancouver, the west side of Vancouver, downtown as well as many suburbs like Richmond, Burnaby, New West, Surrey and Abbotsford posting some of the largest gains in Canada real estate market. However, during the past 10 years, many homebuyers and investors have failed to notice why the property values and housing market was keeping afloat and exponentially increasing in value seamlingly every month. With a growth economy based on commodities, construction (of course), employment was at its peak and unemployment was at all time lows in Greater Vancouver. However, everything changed as soon as the global economic crisis took hold of world economies, trade and credit financing. Vancouver real estate did not escape the US housing market liquidation. Perhaps, we have fared better than our countertops down south through 2008 and into 2009, but most Vancouver municipalities have faced large drops in real estate housing values in 2009 already. The effect of long term exponential growth in Greater Vancouver property values has taken its negative effect on the property forecast 2009 for Vancouver. Affordability is now the major issue facing first time homebuyers (who service the engine that creates a balance Vancouver real estate market) and with property affordability in Vancouver at it’s all time lowest (one of the most expensive cities to live in the world), this segment of the population has been kep out for about a year now. With the economy in ruins and jobs disappearing, Vancouver is in a tight position when it comes to people wanting to buy a home right now. In addition, with credit tightening throughout all the major banks, it has become very difficult for first time home buyers to get a good mortgage product for any home that they choose. Therefore, the 2009 forecast for Vancouver real estate and the Vancouver housing outlook 2009 is for a more stable market than the last quarter of 2008, but don’t expect any huge returns or gain in value. Stabilization of the Greater Vancouver property market may come later in the fourth quarter of 2009, and forecasts on the Vancouver housing market 2009 suggest that gains in value won’t even begin until mid-2010. As far as the 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is concerned, you can probably expect a slight drop in future sales prices and a huge drop in sales volume through the first six months of 2009. The forecast for Vancouver home market 2009 later in the year is for a steadying of the sales volume and maybe even a slight gain property values, but nothing is set in stone. As long credit is tight and the global economy is in trouble, the Vancouver real estate forecast 2009 seems grim for those looking to sell. For those homebuyers looking to purchase a home or for first time home buyers, 2009 may be the best opportunity for you to get into the market. With a 2009 Vancouver housing forecast for a slight drop in property values coupled with low interest rates for both variable and fixed mortgage financing, the outlook for Vancouver real estate market for buyers is bright. There have been several surveys that have shown that homebuyers in Vancouver are changing their perspective on buying a new home this year compared to the last six months of last year. If this is the case, the 2009 Vancouver housing real estate outlook should be good heading into 2010.

Winter Olympics and Its Affect on the 2010 Vancouver Property Outlook

With recent surveys and analysis, many experts believe that the US housing market will come out of its downward spiral and foreclosure problems by the end of 2009. These same articles and experts expect the Greater Vancouver housing outlook and sales to balance out after that, so some time in very late 2009 or early 2010. With the winter Olympics showcasing Vancouver, there is a lot to be said about creating a renewed interest in the city, not seen since Expo ’86. The 2010 Vancouver housing forecast and Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for smooth sailing once 2010 Olympics hit and there are many reasons why. The Winter Olympics will employ many people before, during and after the Games, creating a legacy like no other large event can provide. The city will be showcased to most of the world’s population, profiling Vancouver as one of the most beautiful cities in the world. In addition, mortgage rates are expected to stay very low through 2010, so that Vancouver home buyers looking to purchase in a year’s time, will still be able to get great financing products. The Lower Mainland property market has seen it’s share of negative news including the cancelled Coquitlam Riverbend project, and the Homer & Helmcken plus Garden City Richmond condo receivership problems. Now comes the Millennium 2010 Olympic Village fiasco with over-runs, debt mounting and problems with completing the affordable housing component. With all of this, it doesn’t seem like the 2010 Vancouver real estate outlook should be very good, but it is. And then, you can also add the delay of the West Vancouver Evelyn project, the cancellation of the Hills Vancouver condos, the delay of the Ritz-Carleton condo hotel residences and the cancellation of Jameson House and the forecast for 2010 Vancouver housing market should look bleak. However, it is safe to say that condo and housing inventory has been kept in check through all of these delays and cancellations. With an ever increasing population moving into the Lower Mainland, the outlook for 2010 Vancouver housing market is for a shortgage of units by years’ end and into 2011, even with the estimated completion of these delayed projects. With many developers holding back and not building for another year, this will cause some problems in terms of new inventory that comes onto the market for homebuyers. With this limited supply of homes, the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast is calling for an increase in value, sales figures and sales volumes through the year and into 2011. By 2012, it is expected that Greater Vancouver will again face a shortgage of homes and affordable housing such as condos and the construction process will start yet again. Therefore, the Winter Olympics will provide a vehicle for the Vancouver property forecast in 2010 to be positive … and with sales volumes and prices increasing, the 2010 Vancouver housing outlook is very positive to say the least.

So What Do the 2010 and 2009 Vancouver Real Estate Outlook Mean to You?

If you currently own your own home or you have invested in condos/townhomes that you are now renting or have yet to close, HOLD ON to your property. The biggest mistake homebuyers and investors make is to listen to the top headline news about the world falling down. This is not a time to panic. Rather, you should think through and calculate your monthly cashflow to see if you can afford your place still as well as whether or not to keep your rental properties. If you are tight on cash, sure, sell. However, if you aren’t, holding onto your Vancouver property and real estate through 2009 and 2010 is a great way to ensure that you will not incur losses or have to pay capital gains tax if you have made money. The 2009 Vancouver housing forecast is good and the Vancouver real estate outlook for 2010 is even better. By keeping your rental homes for another 12 months, you may end up facing an upswing in property values again during the Olympics when Vancouver is on the world stage. If you are a first time home buyer, 2009 may be the BEST year to purchase your new home. With a drop in Vancouver property 2009 in addition to great mortgage rates and financing packages, you can skip ahead of the rest of us who purchase during the past five years and locked in at higher rates. If you can afford it comfortably, 2009 is the best year to purchase Vancouver property. The forecast for 2010 Vancouver housing market is calling for an increase in value as well as both fixed and variable mortgage rates, so why wait? As an investor, the 2009 Vancouver housing outlook is bright for you as well. Again, as a real estate investor, cashflow is king. If you can operate your business with positive cashflow (meaning your rental income is higher than all expenses), you should put in your due diligence and start purchasing property again. These are great times for you. 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for more liquidation events such as the MACBULK Onni condo sales in addition to many other real estate developers providing incentives to purchase their available inventory. The forecast for the 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for more developers taking on the GST, anywhere from 10 to 35% off the original pre-construction pricing, no strata fees or property fees paid for for the first year or even getting a new car with the purchase of a new home. These incentives will not last through the 2009 Vancouver property market and by 2010, the forecast for Vancouver housing outlook will again re-start bidding wars for good property. These gloom and doom times are actually not so bad when you look at all the factors involved with how you can take advantage of these special times.

Other News Items:

Major Banks in Canada Slash their Prime Rates and See Recovery Sooner Rather Than Later

According to the Real Estate Weekly for Vancouver, the Bank of Canada slashed their prime lending key interest rate to its lowest level in the history of the country this month and all of the major banks, surprisingly, followed suite with a drop in their bank prime rates too. The central bank of Canada cut the trend setting over night rate by 0.5% to the lowest 1% level in history, lower than the 1958 rate of 1.12%. In mortgage moves, the Royal Bank of Canada slashed its one two and three year rates by 1.1%. It’s five year posted rate drops to 5.79% and there is a five year closed rate special at only 4.49%. Many economists see the Central Bank of Canada lowering its rate again by as much as 0.5% as early as the next BoC announcement on March 3, 2009. Overall the BoC predicts that inflation will average at a very lot 1.1 per cent this year and won’t return to the target inflation rate of 2% until 2011. There is speculation that the recovery in Canada will come sooner rather than later with a full recovery come mid-2011. That is yet to be seen. Alarmist view dismissed recentlay and published in the Real Estate Weekly. A major Canadian bank believes fears of a future downturn in housing markets is more myth than reality. According to another article, homes throughout Vancouver and in all of Canada have become more affordable to typical homebuyers and this coupled with low interest rates and loans create opportunity for people looking for new homes. There is a better chance of buying an affordable new Vancouver home now than at any tie in the past decade says REBGV. With home sales and consumer confidence already bouncing back in certain cities and neighbourhoods, people and homebuyers have seen a long-term strength in investing in property and owning a home. With low interest rates and consumer confidence already hitting all-time lows and recovering, there are numerous opportunities for homebuyers to get back into the market. Overall Vancouver residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the Vancouver Board’s Housing Price Indix, decline 10.9% to $489,007 between January 2008 and 2009. The benchmark price for a Vancouver single family detached home declined 11.2% to $659,638 in Janaury 2009 compared to $742,490 January 2008. The same trends are seen in the Vancouver condominium/apartment market in addition to to a lesser extent, attached units like townhomes and duplexes. REBGV also reports that sales of detached Vancouver homes and apartment properties declined as much as 58.1% when comparing January 2008 to 2009. New listings in the Greater Vancouver real estate market have also declined. The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate to the lowest level in history to 1 per cent. The decrease was in line with the expectations of most Canadian economists, who have been calling for bold action on the parts of the Bank of Canada and the federal government. Shortly after the BoC rates fell, the big banks led by BMO and TD dropped their lending prime rates by the same amount.

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