Thursday, September 24, 2009

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast 2010 - Prediction about Greater Vancouver House Prices, Home Pricing w/ 12% HST, Interest Rates, Olympics, Fundamentals

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast 2010 – A Prediction About House Prices, Home Values and Housing Sales Volume

What's in store for Vancouver Real Estate in 2010? Here's a forecast on Vancouver home prices and prediction on Vancouver property values.Being an enthusiast about this subject for over a decade, there are some thoughts about a 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast. With sales volume and prices increasing through 2009, many homebuyers are wondering if average selling prices and property values will continue to increase in the latter stages of 2009 into and through 2010. Here is a prediction about the 2010 Vancouver real estate resale market as well as presale condo developments in the area.

7 Major Factors Will Affect 2010 Vancouver Housing Prices

There are many factors that affect Vancouver housing prices, but in late 2009 and into 2010, there are several very unique circumstances that will influence sales volume of all housing types in addition to property values and sales prices throughout the region. It is often hard to predict 2010 Vancouver housing prices simply because a lot can change. Some important factors the affect 2010 Vancouver housing prices now may end up not influencing the resale or presale markets, while other new factors may creep up to affect homebuyers. Here are the seven factors that will likely affect the 2010 Vancouver Housing Prices in no particular order:

1. mortgage rates (financing)
2. BC Harmonized Sales Tax (12% HST on new property)
3. supply and demand in 2010 Vancouver presale real estate market
4. supply and demand in 2010 Vancouver resale real estate market
5. consumer confidence and emotions
6. Vancouver population growth and projections
7. Vancouver economic fundamentals in 2010 and beyond

A Quick Summary of Our 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Forecast Based on These Factors

A 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast based on the above factors will determine where the property market will likely head in the future. As part of our prediction for the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast, we have put together a quick summary explaining each of the 7 factors and if they will positively of negatively influence the Vancouver real estate forecast 2010. Firstly, mortgage rates have been at all time lows for over a year. The Bank of Canada lending rate has been at 0.25% and they have promised to keep it there until at least the third quarter of 2010 barring upward pressure from inflation. Therefore, after June 2010, it is likely that the BoC lending rate will increase, thereafter the banks will also increase their prime rates, increasing the mortgage variable rates across the board. The fixed rates, which are based on the US bond market, will also likely see a spike too. As inflation starts to creep in, more investors will head towards buying US bonds, and therefore, demand will increase, increasing the borrowing fixed mortgage rates in Canada. With both fixed and variable rates in Vancouver increasing in the future, this will have a negative impact on the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast, as cashflow and affordability will again become a bigger issue. A big effect on the 2010 Vancouver new real estate market including presales condos and pre-construction homes will be the BC Harmonized Sales Tax. A new 12% BC HST will be applied to any new construction property, which will have a huge influence on the presale 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast. With less demand for presales and pre-constuction Vancouver real estate, developers and builders of new property will feel the hit come 2010 and into 2011, as less Vancouver homebuyers and condo purchasers will pay the extra 12% hit on a new home. Demand for presale Vancouver real estate in 2010 will go down, putting upwards pressure on resales property. What this means is that many homebuyers will opt for resale listings. With more demand, the resale 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast is brighter, and will likely see a bigger price increase as demand grows for these non HST taxable homes. As the global economic crisis is becoming better managed and the end is in sight, consumer confidence in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast and predictions is gaining. As many Vancouver homebuyers purchase homes based on emotion, this boost in confidence will also boost the local Vancouver real estate forecast in 2010. As fall and winter 2008 was a brutal year for not only Vancouver real estate sales volume but also housing prices, 2009 will see a huge increase in both areas. As numbers are published in late 2009 and early 2010, we will likely see the above 100% increase sales volume and increase of 1 – 3% per month in Vancouver housing prices until next summer. This will have a positive impact on consumer confidence in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast and predictions. In addition, the Greater Vancouver population continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in Canada. This will continue and put pressure on the Vancouver property market as inventory has stalled during the past 2 years due to the global economic crisis. With many new condo projects delayed or cancelled, this has pushed back a lot of housing inventory, thereby reducing the Vancouver real estate inventory during this hot market time. Lastly, the Vancouver economic fundamentals remain strong. With new transportation routes completed, better accessibility and an influx in business and retail, the Vancouver real estate forecast 2010 is likely headed upwards. Notice that we didn’t even mention the 2010 Olympics, which we believe is a non-factor in the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast.

Conclusion about 2010 Vancouver Home Prices

So a quick conclusion on where the Vancouver home prices are headed in late 2009 into 2010: sales volumes and home prices will see huge jumps compared to last year as 2008 was a bad year. Mortgage rates are likely headed upwards and even spiking by mid-2010. The addition of the 12% BC HST on new homes will adversely affect the presales and new Vancouver home market, causing presales 2010 Vancouver home prices to dip as demand drops. With less homebuyers in the market to purchase new homes, the resales 2010 Vancouver home prices will likely go up a lot, as more homebuyers look for completed homes. The worst of the economic crisis in Canada is over, and with job creation looming and stricter lending practises from the bank, consumer confidence in the Vancouver real estate market place will go up. Based on emotions felt from the headline news proclaiming a global recovery and above 100% gaines in sales volumes and staggering increase in housing prices, the 2010 Vancouver home prices will likely be buffered by homebuyers purchasing based on emotion. With the economic fundamentals stronger than ever and with population growth and migration into the city increasing, 2010 Vancouver home prices will go up as demand will grow. With new housing inventory stalled and increased demand, the re-balancing of the Vancouver real estate market (especially resales homes) will likely tip in the favour of homeowners by mid to late 2010.

The Other Intagibles Affecting The Vancouver House Prices 2010

There are a few other intangible factors that may or may not affect the 2010 Vancouver House Prices beginning with the 2010 Vancouver Whistler Winter Olympics. The hot market in 2009 started back in April and has continued through into October, but none of the price increases or staggering jump in sales volume had to do with the 2010 Olympics. On the contrary, the fundamentals behind the 2009 Vancouve house prices include 2 factors: record low mortgage rates and affordability which go hand in hand. These 2 factors will likely drive the 2010 Vancouver house prices upwards in the first half of the year. Therefore, the 2010 Olympics are a mute point. Most of the amateur investors who had flipped property or renovated homes and flipped them afterwards no longer are in the Vancouver real estate market. The Vancouver house prices 2010 will be much more stable the the boom years between 2005 – 2007. A second intangible factors that will affect 2010 Vancouver house prices are transportation nodes. With the completion of the Canada Line SkyTrain from Richmond to YVR to downtown Vancouver, this creates many new neighbourhoods in which we will see huge growth and demand in real estate. These areas will likely see the best increases in 2010 Vancouver house prices and demand will increase with limited new supply coming onto the market.

The Future of Vancouver Real Estate In a Nutshell

So our prediction for the next year is that the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2010 continues to be bright buoyed by low interest rates and the outlook of the dreaded HST on new homes. So the combination of the two factors will likely increase Vancouver property prices in 2010 (even if the interest rates remain low, as there are always forecastings saying a mortgage rate spike is in order in 2010 through 2010) and the HST which have negatively impact the new presale Vancouver housing market. Therefore, the presale Vancouver home prices will stabilize and possibly decrease as a result of the 12% HST added on to the purchase price, which will make resale Vancouver real estate more attractive, and therefore bumping and increasing the price of the resale Vancouver home prices 2010. With that in mind, overall, the Vancouver 2010 real estate forecast is good, as property values, home prices and housing prices should increase. Housing inventory for 2010 will remain steady as many projects will again start, but will not be completed until 2011 or beyond. The 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast will see Vancouver home prices increase through the first half of 2010, and then become more steady from the presale housing market value standpoint through the latter half of 2010. For the resale Vancouver home prices in 2010, they will increase throughout the year due to pent up demand as well as the forecast of increased interest rates.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Bookmark and Share

Friday, June 6, 2008

The Latest Vancouver Real Estate Stats - Will Prices Keep Going Up or are we expecting a time of Balanced and Sustainable Growth in the Lower Mainland

Experts Remain Confident in Vancouver Real Estate Housing Market

Confidence in the Vancouver housing market has perched this city's real estate values up high and will continue to be a significantly unaffordable community to live in.Credit Union of B.C. remains confident in the B.C. housing real estate market, and the respected group is not alone. CUCBC chief economist Helmut Pastrick anticipates B.C. house prices rising up to 12 per cent in 2008 and moving up again in 2009 by 12 per cent to 14 per cent. Pastrick, however, also cautions that poor affordability is the main constraint on the current new B.C. housing real estate market. Yet, housing starts in January and February were up 47 per cent over the first two months of 2007 in the Vancouver metropolitan real estate area, an indication that others also remain bullish. Meanwhile, Royal LePage survey has found that healthy year-over-year house price gains in Vancouver real estate were recorded during the first three months of 2008. While more modest price increases were observed when compared to previous quarters in the new Vancourer real estate property market, the solid appreciations are largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies , high migration levels, and relatively low interest rates. This all points to enduring home buyer demand in Vancouver property, according to Royal LePage. While almost all real estate Vancouver markets surveyed experienced price increase in housing, it was the smaller cities, with relatively affordable housing and strong economies based on resources industries that emerged with the most significant gains. Thriving Saskatoon saw appreciation as high as 66 per cent, while areas in Newfoundland posted increases above 20 per cent for the first time since Royal LePage started tracking Canadian house prices.

Of the housing types in Canada surveyed nationally, detached bungalows increased to $336,834 (up 8.3 percent), followed by standard two storey properties, which rose to $400,647 (up 7.1 per cent) and standard condominiums, which increased in price to $240,423 (up 6.9 per cent), year over year. House prices in Vancouver real estate and Victoria property continued to climb during the first quarter of 2008 due to strong local and international home buyer demand. In Vancouver, the upcoming 2010 Olympic Games have added extra fervor to the already strong economy. The city’s high employment levels and relatively low cost of borrowing money conteinues to attract an in flux of new homebuyers to the Vancouver real estate market. While affordability in Vancouver appears to be decreasing, current rising wages and relatively low interest rates enable homebuyers to enter the housing market.

Vancouver Home Foreclosures Rising: Real Estate Expert

With the recent increase in trades worker and material prices in addition to construction delays, many developers have faced receivership.  On the flip side of it, may Vancouver real estate investors and home purchasers have overextended themselves with mortgage debt and payments.  The result is an expected increase in Vancouver foreclosure properties in the next year.According to Sam Cooper, a Staff Reporter for the North Shore Outlook newspaper: Real estate foreclosures on the North Shore and across the Lower Mainland are on the rise and the trend is expected to accelerate in the next few years, according to an expert. Kap Hiroti, a real estate investor in Vancouver who started a business gathering and selling data on B.C. foreclosures in 2006, says foreclosure listings have jumped in the past year. Back in 2006 an average week would see about 10 Lower Mainland foreclosure Vancouver listings, but now it’s clower to 20, Hiroti said. The reasons behind rising foreclosures is unprecendted lack of affordability and borrowers over-extending themselves to purchase homes, Hiroti explained. “We have people drawn to (purchase homes in) North Vancouver and West Vancouver, and find they can’t afford it,” Hiroti said in an interview Monday. So far in 2008 there have been three foreclosures in North Vancouver and three in West Van. There have been six in the Squamish Valley and three in nearby Whistler. “We are expecting to see (Vancouver foreclosure listings) go up in the next couple years,” Hiroti said. “I’m expecting some real movement as we get into 2010 and beyond.”

Hiroti said about 80 per cent of provincial B.C. foreclosures come from the Lower Mainland real estate market, with Vancouver and Surrey accounting for almost 40 per cent. Hiroti said most of the current Vancouver foreclosures listings result from loans taken out int eh past six to twelve months – as financially over-extended home buyers default or walk out of high-raio (little money down) loans with amortization periods up to 40 years. Hiroti said the new long-period loans allowed home buyers into a pricey Vancouver real estate market, but as they discovered they couldn’t keep pace with interest and payments, they hit the finanical wall. While Hiroti is predicting a big rise in Lower Mainland Vancouver foreclosures in the next few years, he doesn’t believe it will approach the tsunami of foreclosure listings hitting the United States now. In the wake of an excessive real estate market of “sub-prime” loans given to borrowers with questionable credit, the American housing market has collapsed as buyers eject out of huge loans and rapidly devaluing homes. At the same time, tightened lending resulting form the crisis has choked off real estate market entry for many prospective buyers.

Hiroti said American lenders were far more agreessive than their Canadian counter parts and thus the Canadian real estate market should be insulated from the debacle taking place in the United States. “Canada has some sub-prime lenders but not to the same extent as the U.S.,” Hiroti said. “Our credit is clamping down here (but) itn’s not a crunch.” Hiroti said he believes “fairly low” interest rates and continued popularity of 35 to 40 year loan products will mean stabilization of prices in Canada’s “softening” real estate market and lead to a stable Vancouver foreclosure property market. “We’re not going to see anything like (the dip) in the U.S. (real estate market or foreclosure listings.” In a series of reports this month, Cameron Muir, chief economist for the British Columbia Real Estate Association, signaled a shift to a more buyer friendly real estate market in Vancouver. “Some weakness on the export side of the economy and eroding affordability will have an impact on housing demand over the next two years,” Muir said. B.C. home sales were down 14 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, while active listings were up 24 per cent, according to Muir. “more balance between demand and supply means less upward pressure on home prices. It also reduces the chance of multiple bids on the same (Vancouver home), giving homebuyers more time to investigate properites thoroughly before purchasing.” Home buyers in Vancouver who want to access the Vancouver foreclosure real estate market can sometimes negotiate deals below market value, depending on the financial situation of the owner, Hiroti said. DealSpeak Inc.

Vancouver Housing Market Cools

According to Jeff Nagel for the Black Press and published in the North Shore Outlook newspaper: The once-hot Lower Mainland housing real estate market has cooled significantly, new stats show. Real estate stats for May in Vancouver show home prices have posted only small gains so far in 2008. Detached house prices are up about 5.5 per cent so far in 2008 in both the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley realty areas ito $771,250 and $549,610 respectively. Greater Vancouver townhouses sold for 4.8 per cent more in May ($479,000) while condos were up 3.1 per cent to $390,000. Fraser Valley townhomes and condos are both up less than one per cent for the year so far to $341,000 and $229,700. Both those average selling prices marked a slight drop from April. Both real estate boards reported a sharp drop in sales and many more new housing listings from prospective sellers compared to a year ago – continuing evidence of a softening Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate market. “Prices are not increasing as rapidly – now down to single digits overall – which is good news from an affordability standpoint,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Greater Vancouver real estate sales were down 33 per cent in May from a year earlier. Fraser Valley sales in housing real estate were off 26 per cent and active listings surged 33 per cent in May. “We’re experiencing a return to more normal market conditions,” said Kelvin Neufeld, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board president. CMHC has predicted residential price gains in housing in Vancouver of eight per cent this year and five per cent in 2009. That would end four straight years of double digit growth. Analysts say a US style housing market real estate collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s job and population growth trends and its constrained geography up against mountains, ocean and the U.S. border. The Greater Vancouver real estate stats count Metro Vancouver except Surrey, Langley, and North Delta, which are tallied in the Fraser Valley real estate numbers.

Greater Vancouver Home Sales Inched Higher in January

According to the REW weekly for Greater Vancouver, Housing sales across Greater Vanocuver inched slightly higher in January compared to a year earlier, while listings of homes for sale also increased. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales totalled 1,819 in January 2008, an increase of 0.7 per cent over January 2007, and a 5.5 per cent decline form January 2006. New listings also climbed 14.9 per cent compared to January 2007. In contrast January 2006, new listings from this January rose more dramatically up 34.7 percent. “with new listings outpacing sales increases to start the year, it appears the real estate market is heading toward more balance,” says REBGV president. “the result will be welcome for consumers looking for more time to undertake due diligence before making a buying or selling decision.” Sales of apartment properties in Greater Vancouver in january 2008 rose 11.7 percent to 860. The benchmark price, as calculated by REBGV’s price index, of an apartment property increased 13.8 per cent to $378,336. “It was clearly on the strength of the apartment sales that overall residential sales figures increased in January,” says Naphtali. “there’s clearly been a trend over the past decade toward growth in the high density condo market. More and more consumers are purchasing apartments.” Attached property sales declined 6.7 per cent to 318, compared with January 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 12.4 per cent to $462,627. January 2008 sales for detached houses decreased 7.8 per cent to 641 from the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties in Greater Vancouver’s real estate market rose 15.7 perc ent to $742,490.

BC Construction Leading in Canada

52,000 jobs created in the field, census shows and written by Kristen for Metro Vancouver magazine in March 2008. British Columbia’s booming construction real estate industry helped make the trade one of the fastest growing labout fields in Canada, a study released yesterday found. Nearly 52,000 construction jobs in BC were created between 2001 and 2006, making up one quarter of the province’s job growth according to Statistics Canada’s report on labour mobility. In Alberta, real estate construction sector increased by 39,700 jobs during the same period. The expansion in BC is attritubted in part to the buildup to the 2010 Olympic Games. Mak Kader, who works for Graham construction, moved to Vancouver in September after two fruitless years searching for a real estate construction related job in Toronto. “It’s better wather, better pay and benefits, and better hours,” he said in Vancouver.

Real Estate Market Forces, not Olympic Games, To Drive Vancouver Property Demand

Published in the Real Estate Edge on February 23, 2007 and written by Monte Stewart. Forum looks to future of housing growth in the Greater Vancouver region. The 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics will not be a big driver of new housing demand, predicts a leading residential real estate market analyst. Traditional market forces – not the Games – will still be dictating demand around 2010, says Jennifer Podmore, managing partner of MPC Intelligence. MPC Intelligence updates companies monthly on residential real estate projects in Vancouver, Victoria, the Interior and Calgary through its website ( Clients include real estate developers, builders, lawyers, architects, and municipalities. Podmore recently spoke at a panel discussion at the Buildex 2007 conference on the future of the Greater Vancouver real estate property market.

She noted that today’s prices will go up only slightly between now and the Olympic Games. “But the big message that we’re giving our clients is that they have to plan in today’s dollars for tomorrow’s market,” she said in an interview. “By the time the Olympics hit, that’s going to be our eighth consecutive year of real estate market growth, if we keep going in that way,” she added. “No market – no matter how healthy and sustainable you are, and how great your economic indicators are – can handle that sort of sustained long-term growth.” Real estate developers in Vancouver recognized long ago that the Olympic Games would not be a huge source of residential demand. And this year, Podmore predicted, the Greater Vancouver residential market won’t see the same rapid escalation in prices that it has in the past couple of years, purely as a result of reduced affordability and because most home buyers are “end users” – people who will actually live in the homes – rather than real estate investors.

MPC is monitoring 2,100 residential projects, which contain more than 71,000 units, that are now in the planning and construction stages. High-rise condos make up the bulk (4,335) of 8,674 new units expected to come on the real estate market in the near future, while low-rise (1,691) and townhomes (767) rank second and third, respectively. In the future, Podmore expects real estate developers to build more woodframe condos, which cost less than concrete structures. The high cost of concrete has repeatedly been cited as a prime cause of construction-cost increases in the past few years. Podmore forecasts that the downtown Vancouver sub-market will have the highest unit cost this year - $825 per square feet, compared with $775 in 2006. Surrey and Langley will have the lowest at $390. Although the Olympic Games won’t affect housing demand, they will have a big impact on the industrial market, according to Russ Bougie, an industrial-property sales specialist with Colliers International. Bougie is expecting a sizable decline in industrial demand following the Games.

Now, however, industrial vacancy is at only 1.4 per cent. In other words, for every one million sq ft of industrial land, only 14,000 sq ft of warehouse space is available for lease in Greater Vancouver. “You don’t know how many calls I get from tenants looking for X amount of square feet with a dock or a loading door, and it doesn’t exist,” said Bougie. As a result, many companies are opting to operate several small locations rather than one large one, and firms are moving their operations further east toward the Fraser Valley. Home Depot opted to acquire property in Port Coquitlam for a 20,000 sq ft warehouse, he said, because it could not find a site closer to West Vancouver and Vancouver stores that the new facility will service. Bougie predicted an average lease rate of $110 - $120 per square feet. “Our real estate market has changed a lot,” said Bougie, referring to higher industrial-property prices. “I’m not complaining.”

The Olympic Games will also have an impact on demand for office space, said Andrea Walburn, research director for Cushman Wakefield LePage. “There are going to be a lot of short-term leases and a lot of companies (opening new offices) related to the Winter Olympics,” said Welburn. But this year, demand for office space, which has been extremely high the past few years, will start to ease. Approximately 12 to 15 floors worth of office space downtown may stabilize rental rates that have reached $40 per square foot recently. “Downtown, we’re about five per cent vacant – which is nothing,” said Welburn.

Burnaby and Surrey are poised to add more supply while New Westminster, which has a 16 per cent vacancy rate and is not an overly attractive sub-market is making slow steady improvements. Meanwhile, strong demand is also expected to continue in the retail sector. But Curtis Redel, a retail specialist with Avison Young, indicated that real estate market will still experience some significant changes. Some planned real estate projects will be postponed as consumer spending slows down and a labour shortage continues beyond 2010. Today, the drivers of retail real estate demand are the strong North American economy, U.S. consumer spending and investment, downtown Vancouver’s population growth, street-front locations, the labour shortage and rising land prices. As a result, of these factors, local tenants have been pushed out by international chains.

Based on the number of people who sought out Podmore for one-on-one questions afterward, most Buildex conference delegates were interested in residential demand. “It was quite interesting,” said Rich Zalaudek, a realtor with Royal LePage. “They all wanted her to forecast what was going on. They all wanted the answers. People are relying on somebody else to get the answers and then go ahead and that, instead of trying to figure it out themselves.” He said the Olympic Games will have more of a long-term effect on residential demand. “We’re going to be on a world stage,” he said. “They’re going to go, ‘Wow, what a fantastic place.’ But I don’t think they’re all going to rush here and buy homes right away.”

The relocation of industrial properties and real estate to the Fraser Valley and elsewhere will help to balance the Greater Vancouver market as jobs and homeowners move with them, he added. “Since the prices of homes are so high, there is relief in the valley,” said Zalaudek. “(The average home price) is slightly less. I think (movement of industrial sites) is good. It’s spreading things out and making the whole Lower Mainland more liveable. It just makes more sense.” James Ko, project manager with Kozy Development Inc., a Vancouver-based multi-family home and commercial builder, said he was glad to hear expert speakers confirm real estate trends that he has already noticed. “The forecast, I think, is good,” said Ko. “They’ve got reasons behind what they’re saying. It’s a growing city. There’s a cycle.”

Labels: , , , ,

Bookmark and Share